What is at stake when Trump tweets about North Korea?
On the 3rd of January this year, Donald Trump sent out a tweet about North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s Nuclear capability, including the line:
“I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his,”
This was not the first tweet of this nature sent by the American leader, and certainly not the last as through the past few years, nuclear war between the two countries has been on many people’s minds. But what is really at stake every time Trump taunts the North Korean leader like this?
In truth, the USA’s nuclear arsenal is far greater than North Korea’s, a staggering 6,800 warheads compared to North Koreas 25-60 weapons. If a nuclear conflict did arise, the USA would completely obliterate North Korea. To most leaders, this would be a certain deterrent against striking first. Due to pressure from the public, internal command and well established rules of engagement, the USA would never strike first either. Yet unfortunately, Kim Jong Un is no ordinary leader, a third-generation dictator, raised with a distorted view of his own power in the world, and known to treat his subjects with a complete lack of empathy. There is a chance that one day a leader like this could simply snap. With his ego bruised by another inflammatory tweet and his over-confidence in his country’s nuclear power, he could send a nuclear bomb to the US or a city of one of their nearby allies (South Korea or Japan), effectively sealing the fate of the world. But what would happen next?
Firstly, Trump would receive immediate warning that a missile was approaching, he would open the football (a leather case containing an outline of nuclear options), and discuss his options with two military officials. He would then make the decision. The order would be given, and within five minutes, a number of American missiles would be launched. Before the Korean missiles had even hit, the USA would have retaliated.
It is most likely that many missiles would fail, as they either do not reach their target or they are intercepted. However, even the effect of one successful missile is totally annihilating. When a bomb like those sent to Hiroshima and Nagasaki hits, there are five main zones of impact. Firstly, at the heart of the blast within a half-mile radius, there is total wipe-out. Temperatures of several million degrees centigrade are reached and the heat vaporises all human tissue leaving only shadows burnt in stone behind. In the second zone, there is a 90% immediate death rate as most materials burst into flame, buildings collapse and fire-storms suck up all oxygen killing people hiding in bunkers. In the third zone, the massive shock waves blow glass out of windows and collapse buildings leaving the few survivors blinded, burnt and bleeding from internal injuries. With the emergency services also wiped out by such a blast, survivors can only hope for a quick death. The fourth zone of impact, (around 1,700 miles like in the 1986 nuclear leak in Ukraine, where radiation was carried by wind and rain) kills by the fall-out radiation. Those in areas of high exposure are killed in days, facing hair-loss, bleeding internally from the mouth and gums, and falling into a coma. At lower levels, the death rate remains high as pregnant women are likely to miscarry or give birth to severely disabled children and damage is done to the immune system and body’s ability to heal. Soon after is the fifth zone, where over the areas of low exposure, radiation-induced cancers will come into effect up to twenty years later and many children will be born with abnormalities or leukaemia. The surrounding environment and ecosystems would also be devastated. This is the effect of just one bomb, the USA has nearly 7,000. It is estimated that a hundred of Hiroshima-sized bombs (less than half a percent of the world’s arsenal) could wipe out multiple cities and put 150 million tonnes of smoke into the stratosphere. Not only this, it has the power to desolate hundreds of struggling ecosystems, plunge the world into an ice-age and cause food shortages from decreasing growing seasons, killing around a billion people.
Of course, this is all based on a hypothetical situation. After all, North Korea has recently approached the USA with the possibility of peace talks. Nevertheless, every time Donald Trump tweets about Kim Jong Un, taunts him, threatens him, this is what he risks.